Trading Diary Jan 22nd

Hereisaquickrecapofallofthetradesthatweinitiated,closed,managedorexpiredintheweekthatwasJan22ndthruJan25th?

TuesdayJan22nd:

TRADE:GOOG(~$704)BoughttheJan25th/Feb16th725CallCalendarfor$3。

60

Enis?

MyoriginalthoughtonthistradewasasalowriskwaytoplayforabounceinGOOGgiventheloweredexpectationsasthestocksoldoff5%intheweekpriortotheevent?

Thepush/pullfactorsforGOOGseemedevenlybalanced,withthedeclineinpricingintheonlineadvertisingmarketoffsetbymarketshareadvancesbyGOOGinthemobilemarket?

Asaresult,Iboughtthe725callcalendarasalowriskwaytoplayforamodestearningsbounce?

Thelong-termstorywilldependonGOOGsabilitytotransformitsnumerousinvestmentsoutsideofitstraditionalonlineadbusinessintoprofitablefranchisesthatwilldiversifyitsearningsstructure?

Fornow,theoutcomeofthatstoryisyettobeseen。

Read?

here

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WednesdayJan23rd:

Trade:BoughttheNFLX($103。

50)Jan25/Feb90PutCalendarfor$0。

89

Enis?

Wouldhaverathernotdonethistradeinhindsightofcourse,asitquicklyturnedworthlessafterNFLXsmassivebeataftertheclose?

However,givensomeoftheincrediblemovesNFLXhasmadeinthepast,Ispecificallydidthistradeasasmaller-than-normalpositionthatwasmuchmorespeculativethantheusualtradestructures,withthethinkingthatiftheearningswereamiss,thedownmovewouldntbedrasticgiventhehighshortinterestandmorestableinvestorbase(Icahninvolvement,etc)?

Ifthestockmissed,IfeltIhadagoodchancetomorethantriplemymoney,butknewthatIwastakinga50/50chanceonthatoutcome?

Inanycase,thefinaloutcomewasaquickloser,butthatswhywelookforgoodrisk/rewardtradesonspeculativesituations?

Intheend,Ionlyriskedtheinitial0。

89ofpremium。

Readhere

ACTION:SoldtoCloseHalfofAAPL($514。

30)Jan25th525/550/575callflyat$6。

00fora$3。

00gain,remainlongtheotherhalfwithcostbaseof$3。

00

Dan:WhileIwasclearlyinthecampthatAAPLsQ1earningseventhadthepotentialtobeabinaryevent,meaningupordown5-10%,IwasmoreinclinedtoplayforabounceposttheresultsgivenwhatIfeltwas?

increasingly?

negativesentiment?

MytuneonthestockhadnotchangedasIfeltanyrallywouldbemetwithsellers,Iwaswillingtoplaywithdefinedrisk?

Headingintotheclose,priortotheearningsannouncementIsoldhalfofmypositionforadouble,thusriskingnothingintotheevent?

Readhere

ACTION:SoldtoClosetheGOOG($743。

50)Jan25th/Feb16th725callcalendarat5。

60fora$2。

00gain

Enis?

Thoughthiswasaniceone-daytrade,mymainfrustrationwiththisstructureisthatIdidnotgowithmyoriginalthought,whichwastobuythe735or740callcalendarinsteadofthe725callcalendar?

The735or740calendarwouldhavetargetedtheimpliedmoveinGOOG,whichwasslightlymorethan5%?

Ichosethe725strikebecausemostearningsreportspriortoGOOGhadbeenunderperformingtheirimpliedmove,butthatrationaleendedupbeingtoocute?

Whenindoubt,simplytargetingtheimpliedmoveforthecalendarstrikeislikelyagoodlessonforthefuture。

Read?

here

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ThursdayJan24th:

TRADE:SPY($149。

05)BoughttheFeb16th149。

00Putfor$1。

60

Dan?

Withequitymarketstheworldoverseeminglymeltingup,andvolatilitymeasuredbytheVIXandtherelatedfutures?

massively?

depressed,atthemoneyPutsintheSPYareunusuallycheap?

Whilemostearningsdataappearsencouraging,mysenseisthatweare?

likely?

togetapullbackinthecomingweeksmerelybecauseveryfewexpectit,thiswillbeapositionthatIlegintooveraweekorso,butIfullyacknowledgethepotentialthattheSPXjustcontinuestograduallymelthigher?

Iamnotdigginginandtryingtopickatop,merelytakingadefinedriskshotofareversalinthennextfewweeks?

Readhere

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FridayJan25th:

Trade?

HLF($44。

50)BuyingFeb/Mar40PutCalendarfor1。

50

Dan?

Afterbeing?

mesmerized?

bytheAckman/IcahndebateonCNBConFridayafternoon,myconclusionwaspickingasideofoneoftheheavyweightinvestorsfromadirectionalstandpointseemslikeafoolserrand,butratherplayingfornextvolatilityeventcouldbethetrade?

IwantedtosellFeboptionsthatgowellbidonFridayandownMarchthatIfeelwillgetbidintothecompanysQ4earningsonFeb19th(marchexpiration)?

Readhere

NameThatTrade?

Thisisatheoreticalstructure,notatradethatweputon。

TRADESTRUCTUREAGAINSTLONG:

FB($31。

25)BuyApr35/381×2CallSpreadforEvenMoney

Dan?

Thisisaclassicleveragedoverwriteforlongholdersofthestock?

Readhere


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